What does your income goal actually need?
Enter your account and the monthly income you want from trading. See the return, the risk per trade and the account size it takes, and how lumpy the months get along the way.
Free, with no sign up, and nothing you enter leaves your device. It is arithmetic on averages, not a forecast, and it leaves out fees and tax.
What your account earns a month at each risk size
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What to do with this
A goal that needs too much risk is not a reason to stop. It is a reason to change the part that is not risk.
Start from the account
If the goal needs more risk than you could sit through, the honest levers are the account size, the edge and the timeline. Raising risk does the most damage when a normal losing run arrives.
Plan for the flat months
Even a real edge has months that end flat or down. If you need the income to cover bills, that pressure turns into trades you would not otherwise take. A buffer takes the bills out of the trade.
Turn the risk into a size
The Position Size Calculator turns the risk you choose into contracts, and the Losing Streak Planner shows what a normal bad run costs at that size.
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The research behind it
- Schilling, M. F. (1990). The longest run of heads. The College Mathematics Journal, 21(3), 196-207.
- Magdon-Ismail, M., Atiya, A. F., Pratap, A., and Abu-Mostafa, Y. S. (2004). On the maximum drawdown of a Brownian motion. Journal of Applied Probability, 41(1), 147-161.
The Income Goal Check is an educational tool. It is not trading advice and not a forecast. It uses the average result per trade at the win rate and reward to risk you enter, with a fixed risk per trade, and it leaves out fees, slippage and tax. The chance of a flat or down month is calculated exactly from the win rate. Real results vary, and trading involves a real risk of loss, so you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
