Your odds of passing, before you pay for the attempt.
Enter the target and drawdown rule, then your win rate, reward to risk and size per trade. See how many of 40 attempts pass, bust or run out of trades, and what changes if you trade smaller or bigger.
Free, with no sign up, and nothing you enter leaves your device. Firms’ rules differ and change, so treat this as an illustration and check the rules of the one you are considering.
40 attempts at your settings
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What if you traded smaller or bigger?
Each row is 2,000 simulated attempts. Win rate, reward to risk, target, drawdown rule and number of trades stay the same as above. Only the size per trade changes.
What to do with this
A simulation can’t tell you whether you will pass. It can show you how much of the answer is the size you choose before you start.
Pick your size before you pay
Size is the one input you control completely. Decide it from the rule and your edge, not from how confident you feel on the day.
Plan for the floor
With a trailing drawdown, a good run raises the floor beneath you. Write what you will do when you are close to it, because that is when loss pressure is loudest.
Treat one result as a small sample
One failed attempt tells you less than it feels like. Change one thing at a time and keep a record. Edge or Luck shows how many trades it takes to tell.
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The research behind it
- Magdon-Ismail, M., Atiya, A. F., Pratap, A., and Abu-Mostafa, Y. S. (2004). On the maximum drawdown of a Brownian motion. Journal of Applied Probability, 41(1), 147-161.
The Evaluation Simulator is an educational tool. It is not trading advice, and it is not affiliated with any firm. Each attempt gives every trade the same fixed odds, treats trades as independent of each other and uses a fixed size per trade. Real evaluations can also have daily loss limits, consistency rules, scaling plans, news restrictions and fees, none of which are modelled here, and a firm may measure its drawdown on open equity during a trade. Check the current rules of your firm. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
