How bad a run is normal?
Pick your win rate and how much you risk. See the losing streak and the drawdown you should expect over a stretch of trades, so you can tell a bad run from a broken plan.
Free, with no sign up, and nothing you enter leaves your device. It is a simulation with fixed odds, so it shows what luck alone can do, not what your market will do.
One simulated stretch of 250 trades
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How likely is each streak?
How your size changes the odds
What to do with this
You canโt choose whether a streak comes. You can choose what it is allowed to cost, and what you do when it arrives.
Decide your limit while it is calm
Pick the drawdown at which you stop and review, and write it down before the run starts. Once you are in it, every number looks negotiable.
Size so a normal streak is survivable
A streak the odds produce half the time should not threaten your limit. If the typical streak alone gets close to it, trade smaller.
Write what you do at the limit
Near a drawdown, loss pressure is at its loudest. The Pressure Map shows where it hits you, and the free Weekly Plan holds the rule you write.
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Continuum Community works through the week together: the market context, the process work, and exercises like this one. Continuum Education is the full process in one place, as a one-time purchase with lifetime access.
The research behind it
- Schilling, M. F. (1990). The longest run of heads. The College Mathematics Journal, 21(3), 196-207.
- Magdon-Ismail, M., Atiya, A. F., Pratap, A., and Abu-Mostafa, Y. S. (2004). On the maximum drawdown of a Brownian motion. Journal of Applied Probability, 41(1), 147-161.
The Losing Streak Planner is an educational tool. It is not trading advice. Streak odds are calculated exactly from the win rate you enter. Drawdown figures come from 2,000 simulated runs with fixed odds, a fixed risk per trade and trades that do not affect each other, so they will not match real markets exactly. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
